- The Red Sox are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Brewers / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSWI | MLBN
The Milwaukee Brewers (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-150) on Saturday, May 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Brewers are 29-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 24-27 ATS.
Brewers vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 3-2, 4.07 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 2-2, 3.04 ERA
Brewers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -155 | O 9.5 -120 | +125 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 +100 | -150 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+22.00 Units / 367% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+18.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+13.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+18.05 Units / 201% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+13.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+9.94 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+5.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 51 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+4.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 26-24 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -1.89% ROI).
- 29-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 13.2% ROI
- 29-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.2 Units / 11.29% ROI
- 21-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.7 Units / -19.42% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 24-27 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -10.38% ROI).
- 26-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 19-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.35 Units / -24.05% ROI
- 30-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.1 Units / 16.04% ROI
Red Sox vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .351 (26-for-74) against Colin Rea when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — second Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of 1.029 (81 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — second Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OBP of .407 (81 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — second Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .622 (46 Total Bases / 74 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — third Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has induced opposing hitters to ground into 2 double plays in 7 opportunities (29%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has a strikeout rate of 44% (8 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .037 (27 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .228 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has not walked any of the 39 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are 28-53 (.346) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 34-3 (.919) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 29-15 (.659) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Brewers are 42-98 (.300) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are just 3-161 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 46-62 (.426) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Red Sox are just 22-91 (.195) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Red Sox are just 23-25 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Brewers have scored three or more runs in an inning 40 times (9%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .921 (77 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 143 strikeouts in 498 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,623 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Brewers have have still managed to win 32% of the time since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 134 of 1,885 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.09 (457.1 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 27 of 458 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.72 (235.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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