- The Braves are + favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cardinals / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | BSMW
The St. Louis Cardinals (+) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Cardinals are 50-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 44-51 ATS.
Cardinals vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 9-6, 3.33 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 3-4, 4.44 ERA
Cardinals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | + |
| Braves | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | + |
Cardinals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 away games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+3.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 21 away games (+3.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 35 games (+2.90 Units / 7% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 81 games (+28.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.64 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+3.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 16 games at home (+1.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 47-49 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -3.3% ROI).
- 50-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -4.95% ROI
- 45-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -5.58% ROI
- 46-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -3.26% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 44-51 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -6.61% ROI).
- 53-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -7.85% ROI
- 33-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.9 Units / -27.9% ROI
- 57-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.5 Units / 19.43% ROI
Braves vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Braves vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray (STL) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 56% (68 SO in 121 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (90/250) against Sonny Gray this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 35% (53 SO in 153 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .301 (124 Total Bases / 412 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .390 — 96th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (425/935) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 52% of the time (532/1,029) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
61 of Charlie Morton’s 97 strikeouts (63%) have come on curveballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,728/3,828) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cardinals are 33-15 (.688) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 44-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Cardinals are 27-18 (.600) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Cardinals are 12-8 (.600) after a loss as underdogs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Braves are 18-84 (.176) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Braves are 85-39 (.685) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Braves are 29-49 (.372) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Braves are 45-107 (.296) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .286 (1,075 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Cardinals are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Cardinals are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .621 (1,075 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves are batting .275 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Braves hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Braves hitters are slugging .486 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (514/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 25 of 501 batters (5%) this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (2,231 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
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