Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Feb 26

(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

The St. Louis Cardinals (-115) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-105) on Monday, February 26, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Jupiter, FL.

Last season, the Cardinals were 71-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins were 74-90 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Cardinals-115
Marlins -105

Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Luken Baker has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
  • Juniel Querecuto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Juniel Querecuto has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Irving Lopez has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Nolan Gorman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
  • Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Garrett Hampson has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 away games (+9.13 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 79 away games (+8.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+5.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Cardinals went 78-84 against the Run Line (-14.45 Units / -6.98% ROI).

  • 71-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.5 Units / -16.02% ROI
  • 76-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -6.04% ROI
  • 79-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -2.36% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Marlins went 74-90 against the Run Line (-35.7 Units / -16.31% ROI).

  • 84-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.47% ROI
  • 74-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -18 Units / -10.01% ROI
  • 84-74 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 1.33% ROI

Sem Robberse is making his MLB debut today.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 15% (19/129) against Eury Perez’s fastball in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 27% (63/233) against Eury Perez in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (27/52) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Cardinals were just 4-70 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.

The Cardinals were 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .433.

The Cardinals were 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals were just 54-12 (.818) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.

The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Marlins are 25-121 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.

The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Cardinals are just 29-47 (.372) against the run line (-29.8% ROI) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .502.

The Cardinals won only 43% of their home games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Cardinals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 42% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins grounded into 158 double plays in the 2023 season — most in MLB.

The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers walked 95 of 1,431 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 20% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Marlins vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
  • Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
  • Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
  • Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
  • Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
  • Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
  • Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Ankle, Out
  • Giovanny Gallegos (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, Out
  • Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, Out
  • Masyn Winn (St. Louis Cardinals): Upper Body, Day-To-Day
  • Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.