- The Cardinals are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Cardinals vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cardinals / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSMW
The St. Louis Cardinals (-185) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+150) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Cardinals are 45-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 50-37 ATS.
Cardinals vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 9-5, 2.97 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-8, 5.54 ERA
Cardinals vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 -110 | O 9 -115 | -185 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | U 9 -105 | +150 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+6.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+5.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+5.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games (+12.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 79 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+8.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 44-42 against the Run Line (-0.4 Units / -0.35% ROI).
- 45-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.72% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -12.33% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 3.64% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 50-37 against the Run Line (+8.73 Units / 7.74% ROI).
- 41-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 9.65% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -8.51% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.27 Units / -0.28% ROI
Nationals vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Dylan Carlson (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
| Sonny Gray (STL) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 57% (60 SO in 105 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 36% (49 SO in 135 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 38% (80/210) against Sonny Gray this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an OBP of just .204 (186 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .317 (208-for-656) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .408 (152 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .292 (183-for-627) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .863 (714 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — fourth Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are 33-15 (.688) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 20-32 (.385) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Cardinals are just 3-20 (.130) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Cardinals are 40-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .945.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 53-201 (.209) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 79-123 (.391) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .614 (952 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .679 (2,512 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Cardinals are batting just .217 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 536 strikeouts in 2,800 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
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