- The Pirates are -125 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Cardinals / Pirates TV Channel: BSMW | SNPT
The St. Louis Cardinals (+105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Cardinals are 43-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 44-39 ATS.
Cardinals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson 5-3, 3.69 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 9-4, 3.23 ERA
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+4.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 72 games (+17.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 42-41 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -1.28% ROI).
- 43-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -4.82% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -13.78% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 5.1% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 44-39 against the Run Line (+1.46 Units / 1.34% ROI).
- 40-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -4.9% ROI
- 37-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -9.57% ROI
- 42-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.13 Units / 2.35% ROI
Pirates vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Pirates vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Kyle Gibson (STL) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 57% (422/741) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 60% (828/1,386) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 54% (178/330) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has located his fastball up for a strike just 44% (77/176) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 33% (46/138) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 16 AB’s against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has struck out just 16% (33/209) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 10th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .272 (213 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 14th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are just 3-20 (.130) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Cardinals are 32-15 (.681) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 9-98 (.084) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Cardinals are 39-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 29-48 (.377) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Pirates are just 3-23 (.115) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Pirates are just 15-16 (.484) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Pirates are just 131-30 (.814) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .617 (914 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (914 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 56 strikeouts in 135 PA’s (41%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .647 (1,414 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Pirates hitters have 414 strikeouts in 1,212 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,433 of 15,660 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 12 of 98 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 401.1 feet — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 397.1
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .292 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
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