- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Wednesday, August 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Cubs are 59-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 59-61 ATS.
Cubs vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 8-6, 3.53 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Alex Cobb 0-1, 8.31 ERA
Cubs vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -110 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -110 | -135 |
Cubs vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 50 games (+33.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 42 games (+21.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+19.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+17.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+13.10 Units / 109% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 49 games (+60.50 Units / 123% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+13.45 Units / 91% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+9.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 40% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 109 games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 120 games (+14.47 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 52 games at home (+2.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 59-62 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -9.16% ROI).
- 59-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -2.47% ROI
- 53-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -13.12% ROI
- 64-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 4.36% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 59-61 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -0.57% ROI).
- 71-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.47 Units / 9.41% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -2.11% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -6.69% ROI
Guardians vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Isaac Paredes (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Alex Cobb (CLE) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has not walked any of the 48 batters that he has faced this month (2 games) — tied for best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 34 of 737 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 91st Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has not walked any of the 48 batters that he has faced this month (2 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .434 (300 Total Bases / 691 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — eighth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (554/925) against Alex Cobb since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (16/104) against Alex Cobb with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (154/272) against Alex Cobb since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Alex Cobb has thrown his changeup 42% of the time (447/1,060) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs are 21-7 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .644.
The Cubs are 17-10 (.630) after a home loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Cubs are just 50-49 (.505) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Cubs are 34-32 (.515) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians are 21-22 (.488) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Guardians are 37-20 (.649) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Guardians are 23-11 (.676) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Guardians are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .291 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Cubs are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 156 double plays in 1,999 opportunities (8%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .527 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .284 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have just 2,182 strikeouts in 11,879 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have just 3,137 strikeouts in 16,688 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 861 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (533.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (1067.0 IP) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since last season (7,076 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians have allowed 0.88 runs per game (105/120) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Guardians vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Shane Greene (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Luis Vazquez (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Yency Almonte (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Keegan Thompson (Chicago Cubs): Ribs, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Wicks (Chicago Cubs): Oblique, 60-Day IL
- Hayden Wesneski (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Luke Little (Chicago Cubs): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 60-Day IL
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