- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Cubs / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | MARQ | MLBN
The Chicago Cubs (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Monday, September 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 80-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 76-80 ATS.
Cubs vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Nate Pearson 2-2, 4.69 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 12-8, 3.56 ERA
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | O 8 -105 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | U 8 -115 | -185 |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 31 games (+19.50 Units / 63% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+18.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+15.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+14.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 39 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games at home (+12.70 Units / 115% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.35 Units / 44% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 away games (+12.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 away games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 64 games (+18.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+14.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 68 games at home (+13.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games at home (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 76-80 against the Run Line (-16.95 Units / -8.14% ROI).
- 80-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.08% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -7.5% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.14% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 76-80 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -4.07% ROI).
- 92-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.08% ROI
- 73-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -6.54% ROI
- 76-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -2.75% ROI
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Pearson (CHC) | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -130 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .346 (18-for-52) against Nate Pearson on low fastballs since last season — 14th highest among among 115 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 12th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .364 (20-for-55) against Nate Pearson this season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: .226 — third Percentile.
Nate Pearson has allowed a slugging percentage of .692 (18 Total Bases / 26 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — fourth Percentile.
Nate Pearson has an ERA of 6.63 (19.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.59 — fifth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (195/578) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (529/1,642) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .137 (18-for-131) against Aaron Nola’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (400/1,143) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 63-12 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Cubs are 15-28 (.349) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Cubs are 24-13 (.649) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Cubs are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 101-57 (.639) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 37-18 (.673) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .282 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Cubs are batting .315 on the road this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Cubs are batting .262 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Cubs have grounded into 18 double plays over the last 14 days — most in MLB.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .345 (1,854 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 64% at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies are batting .305 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,854 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have allowed 3.50 runs per game (273/78) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.57 (1442.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .230 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
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