- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cubs vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Pirates TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Chicago Cubs (-165) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 18-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 11-19 ATS.
Cubs vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 2-2, 2.51 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 1-3, 7.07 ERA
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -105 | -165 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -115 | +135 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 60.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+24.50 Units / 245% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+16.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+13.75 Units / 138% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 26 games (+13.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games (+12.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 18 games (+3.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+2.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 16-14 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 7.3% ROI).
- 18-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 14.63% ROI
- 18-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 22.79% ROI
- 10-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -29.93% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 11-19 against the Run Line (-11 Units / -28.42% ROI).
- 11-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -23.55% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -10.33% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 2.42% ROI
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jon Berti (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd (CHC) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .400 (8-for-20) against Matthew Boyd with two-strikes over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .167 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .400 (8-for-20) against Matthew Boyd with two-strikes in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .174 — first Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has allowed an OBP of .339 (62 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .281 (18-for-64) against Matthew Boyd’s non-fastballs this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — seventh Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strikeout rate of just 24% (21 SO in 89 PAs) on low non-fastballs since last season — 5th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 39% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .452 (19-for-42) against Carmen Mlodzinski when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 0 Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has allowed an OPS of 1.179 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .689 — 0 Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strike rate of just 61% (400/656) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 5th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Cubs are 9-3 (.750) after a loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Cubs are 9-5 (.643) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
The Cubs are 54-36 (.600) after a loss since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 11-37 (.229) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates are just 7-53 (.117) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .518 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
Cubs hitters are slugging .514 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .862 (584 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .680.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of 64% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .661 (5,320 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Pirates hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .378 since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Cubs pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 80 double plays in 1,126 opportunities (7%) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs have allowed 3.64 runs per game (353/97) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 44% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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