- The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Cubs vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Red Sox TV Channel: MARQ | NESN
The Chicago Cubs (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Saturday, April 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Cubs are 17-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 15-12 ATS.
Cubs vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Ben Brown 0-0, 3.73 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Josh Winckowski 1-1, 4.20 ERA
Cubs vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 +100 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -120 | -105 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+21.10 Units / 264% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+12.65 Units / 97% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+18.50 Units / 231% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+16.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+12.25 Units / 175% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 19-7 against the Run Line (+10.6 Units / 28.12% ROI).
- 17-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 28.55% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -11.36% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 3.32% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 15-12 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.52% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 1.77% ROI
- 12-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -7.74% ROI
- 13-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.84% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 95.7 MPH this season (51 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 88.9
Ben Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 95.7 MPH (51 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 88.9 — 0 Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (48/96) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (98/291) this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .481 (50-for-104) against Josh Winckowski when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .331 — first Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .562 (9-for-16) against Josh Winckowski this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .285 (193-for-677) against Josh Winckowski since the 2022 season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (658/1,328) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are just 21-27 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 35-38 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are 54-31 (.635) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are 22-18 (.550) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are just 36-66 (.353) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Red Sox are just 3-150 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 40-53 (.430) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .880 (191 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Cubs hitters are slugging .512 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Cubs are batting .271 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting just .198 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .508 (298 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .670.
Red Sox hitters have 81 strikeouts in 273 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,398 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (4,678 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The longest HR allowed by the Cubs pitchers this season traveled 460.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 442.6
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (244.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
The Red Sox have allowed 2.38 runs per game (38/16) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.77 (142.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 117 of 1,680 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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