- The Cubs are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Cubs vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cubs / Reds TV Channel: MARQ | BSOH
The Chicago Cubs (-130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+110) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Cubs are 51-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 59-47 ATS.
Cubs vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 2-4, 3.08 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -105 | -130 |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | U 9 -115 | +110 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 38 games (+21.40 Units / 56% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 away games (+17.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+11.65 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+20.60 Units / 103% ROI)
- Austin Slater has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+15.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+5.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+4.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 90 games (+14.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 88 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+9.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 56 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 52-56 against the Run Line (-16.1 Units / -10.73% ROI).
- 51-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 45-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -21 Units / -17.64% ROI
- 60-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.8 Units / 9.1% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 59-47 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 4.57% ROI).
- 51-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -4.36% ROI
- 46-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.5 Units / -14.08% ROI
- 56-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 4.43% ROI
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (509/1,109) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (1,270/2,822) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (73-for-381) against Justin Steele when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .276 (105 Total Bases / 381 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .388 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (33 Total Bases / 44 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .455 (15-for-33) against Frankie Montas when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .455 (15-for-33) against Frankie Montas when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .262 — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .788 (26 Total Bases / 33 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .417 — fourth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are 18-6 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .639.
The Cubs are just 12-173 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Cubs are just 41-5 (.891) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Cubs are just 39-9 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 28-34 (.452) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 11-18 (.379) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Reds are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .363 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Cubs are batting just .220 with two outs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .671 (1,884 PA’s) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Cubs are batting .164 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .144 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .109 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Reds are batting just .142 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 86 of 957 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 776 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Shane Greene (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Luis Vazquez (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Yency Almonte (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Keegan Thompson (Chicago Cubs): Ribs, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Wicks (Chicago Cubs): Oblique, 60-Day IL
- Hayden Wesneski (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Luke Little (Chicago Cubs): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 60-Day IL
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