- The Royals are -175 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cubs / Royals TV Channel: MARQ | BSKC
The Chicago Cubs (+145) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-175) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Cubs are 50-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 60-45 ATS.
Cubs vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 4-3, 3.16 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Cole Ragans 7-6, 3.24 ERA
Cubs vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -135 | O 9 -115 | +145 |
| Royals | -1.5 +110 | U 9 -105 | -175 |
Cubs vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 36 games (+23.40 Units / 65% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 23 away games (+17.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+12.50 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+14.70 Units / 74% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+12.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Loftin has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nick Loftin has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nick Loftin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 45% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+15.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.20 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+4.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+14.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games at home (+12.29 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 55 games at home (+7.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 51-55 against the Run Line (-16.1 Units / -10.89% ROI).
- 50-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -5.45% ROI
- 44-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.9 Units / -17.89% ROI
- 59-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.9 Units / 9.36% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 60-45 against the Run Line (+6.84 Units / 4.79% ROI).
- 57-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 5.6% ROI
- 43-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.55 Units / -18.02% ROI
- 58-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.45 Units / 9.09% ROI
Royals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Royals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nick Loftin (KC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Isbel (KC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Royals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Royals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Ragans (KC) | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
| Javier Assad (CHC) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (282/713) against Javier Assad this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .137 (24-for-175) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has walked 22 of 179 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .451 (208 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .739 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (328/1,004) against Cole Ragans this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .500 (10 GB hits out of 20 GBs) against Cole Ragans with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (293/849) against Cole Ragans this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has allowed a slugging percentage of just .351 (194 Total Bases / 553 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .489 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Cubs are just 6-187 (.031) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Cubs are 18-6 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .639.
The Cubs are just 40-5 (.889) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Cubs are just 49-48 (.505) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Royals are just 26-55 (.321) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are just 20-99 (.168) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are 21-9 (.700) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Royals are just 16-58 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .378.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are just 12-32 (.273) against the run line (-46.0% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Cubs are batting just .232 this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .363 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Cubs hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 292 total hits (just 32%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (4,727 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Royals hitters have just 148 strikeouts in 854 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Royals hitters have drawn 53 walks in 854 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 766 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 85 of 940 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
- Shane Greene (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Luis Vazquez (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Yency Almonte (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Keegan Thompson (Chicago Cubs): Ribs, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Wicks (Chicago Cubs): Oblique, 60-Day IL
- Hayden Wesneski (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Luke Little (Chicago Cubs): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 60-Day IL
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