- The Diamondbacks are + favorites vs the Cubs
- Diamondbacks vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | DBTV | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 49-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-49 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 6-6, 4.97 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 2-3, 2.70 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 +100 | + |
| Cubs | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 -120 | + |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 41 games (+16.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 47 away games (+7.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 away games (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+9.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 42% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 48-49 against the Run Line (-7.2 Units / -5.59% ROI).
- 49-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -2.61% ROI
- 52-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 5.2% ROI
- 42-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.6 Units / -13.79% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 49-49 against the Run Line (-11.1 Units / -8.08% ROI).
- 47-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -12.86% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.95 Units / 4.58% ROI
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .341 (60-for-176) against Ryne Nelson this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting .329 (73-for-222) against Ryne Nelson this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .703 (26 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on changeups this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .383 — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .389 (171 Total Bases / 440 ABs) when ahead in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .303 — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .269 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .189 (69-for-366) against Justin Steele when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .276 (101 Total Bases / 366 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .390 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 17 AB’s against Justin Steele when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .208 — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 174-16 (.916) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-18 (.379) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Diamondbacks are 17-11 (.607) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-38 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 3-37 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Cubs are just 21-37 (.362) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Cubs are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Cubs are just 38-5 (.884) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .327 (284 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .425 with two-strikes this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .283.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .753 (284 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Diamondbacks are batting .278 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have 90 extra-base hits out of 283 total hits (just 32%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Cubs are just 11-29 (.275) against the run line (-44.4% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .260 (5,372 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Cubs are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 46 double plays in 708 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 79 of 868 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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