- The Cubs are + favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Cubs TV Channel: FOX
The Arizona Diamondbacks () visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs () on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 50-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-50 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 6-5, 3.89 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks 2-7, 6.92 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | O | ||
| Cubs | U |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 42 games (+15.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 48 away games (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 away games (+8.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 away games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 87 games (+10.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 49-49 against the Run Line (-6.2 Units / -4.75% ROI).
- 50-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -1.56% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.35 Units / 4% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -12.68% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 49-50 against the Run Line (-12.1 Units / -8.74% ROI).
- 47-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -4.63% ROI
- 43-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.1 Units / -13.86% ROI
- 53-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 5.5% ROI
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .318 (210 Total Bases / 661 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (122/410) against Zac Gallen since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .419 (13-for-31) against Zac Gallen this month (3 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — fourth Percentile.
Zac Gallen has struck out just 5% (1/20) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.3 MPH since last season (682 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 89.1
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.1 MPH on non-fastballs since last season (331 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 87.4
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.3 MPH on fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has located his pitches away 70% of the time (1,151/1,651) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 175-16 (.916) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 158-26 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Diamondbacks are 13-6 (.684) after a home loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
The Diamondbacks are 108-27 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 38-5 (.884) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Cubs are just 48-47 (.505) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are just 7-15 (.318) after a road win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Cubs are 31-29 (.517) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .282 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 64% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
26% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
6% of Cubs’ plate appearances have been three-ball counts (5/81 PA’s) against LHP over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters are averaging just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .882 (280 PA’s) on the road this month (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Cubs are batting .289 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 725 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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