- The Cubs are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | DBTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 51-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-51 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 4-6, 3.95 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 8-2, 2.98 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -225 | O 7.5 -120 | +100 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 +100 | -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 away games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 away games (+9.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 away games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+11.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 50-49 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.77% ROI).
- 51-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -0.73% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 2.96% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -11.63% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 49-51 against the Run Line (-13.55 Units / -9.69% ROI).
- 47-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -5.42% ROI
- 43-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.2 Units / -14.72% ROI
- 54-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 6.36% ROI
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt allowed a batting average of just .189 vs right-handed batters (seventh best)– 91st Percentile and .294 vs left-handed batters this season (third worst among qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 72% (333/464) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has struck out just 17% (40/235) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .294 (64-for-218) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — sixth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga has walked 3 of 149 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 51% (529/1,036) against Shota Imanaga in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .148 (16-for-108) against Shota Imanaga’s elevated fastball this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .219 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .435 (10-for-23) against Shota Imanaga in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .245 — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 175-16 (.916) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 108-27 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Diamondbacks are 17-11 (.607) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 158-26 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 48-47 (.505) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are just 21-37 (.362) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Cubs are just 38-5 (.884) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Cubs are 17-5 (.773) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .639.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .321 (327 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .734 (327 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Diamondbacks are batting .281 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 1,450 strikeouts in 7,037 PA’s (21%) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Cubs hitters have 92 extra-base hits out of 285 total hits (just 32%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Cubs are batting .289 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .260 (5,415 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 81 of 886 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 730 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.43 (433.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this month (15 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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