The Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Friday, March 1, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 8:05pm EST in Goodyear, AZ.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 3-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 3-0 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +115 |
| Reds | -140 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 away games (+6.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 away games (+4.15 Units / 208% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Curt Casali has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 away games (+11.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+10.93 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Diamondbacks are 2-4 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -36.15% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.61 Units / -7.4% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -5.29% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.33 Units / -5.02% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Reds are 3-0 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 61.22% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 73.33% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -40% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 29.03% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Slade Cecconi has limited playing time.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 33% (112/337) against Brandon Williamson with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.
Opposing hitters had a groundball rate of just 23% (18/78) against Brandon Williamson when he was behind in the count in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — second Percentile.
Brandon Williamson located 42% of his pitches inside (173/415) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson allowed an OBP of .287 (258 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — seventh Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Diamondbacks are just 116-21 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 55-36 (.604) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Diamondbacks are just 132-13 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks were 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds were just 24-12 (.667) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Reds were 13-63 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters slugged just .512 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Diamondbacks hitters struck out just 1,247 times in 6,124 PA’s (20%) in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters slugged just .394 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Diamondbacks hitters missed on just 23% of swings in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored first at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds have hit 1,462 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 434 times in the 2023 season — 3rd most in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,706 times in the 2023 season — 4th most in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH (4,085 batted balls) in the 2023 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,042 times in the 2023 season — 4th most in MLB.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 140 of 1,443 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Corbin Martin (Arizona Diamondbacks): Lat, Out
- Chris Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, Out
- Kevin Ginkel (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, Out
- Scott McGough (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, Out
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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