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The Arizona Diamondbacks () visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals () on Wednesday, July 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 52-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 59-43 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 7-6, 4.76 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 7-6, 3.58 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | O | ||
| Royals | U |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games (+21.80 Units / 168% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+14.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+12.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 22 games (+10.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 24 away games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+17.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 games (+14.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Nick Loftin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nick Loftin has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 52 away games (+9.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 52 games at home (+16.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games at home (+12.94 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 52 games at home (+6.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 52-50 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -3.29% ROI).
- 52-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -1.5% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.68% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.65 Units / -10.49% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 59-43 against the Run Line (+7.49 Units / 5.36% ROI).
- 56-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.95 Units / 7.1% ROI
- 41-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.45 Units / -19.36% ROI
- 57-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.7 Units / 10.49% ROI
Royals vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alek Thomas (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Royals vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Montgomery (ARI) | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +125 |
| Alec Marsh (KC) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.2 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (145 balls in play) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 89.9
Opponents are hitting .291 (113-for-388) against Ryne Nelson when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .240 — fourth Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .517 (122 Total Bases / 236 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .389 — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OBP of just .167 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .329 — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (103/374) against Michael Wacha with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 169 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (215/434) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (551/1,132) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .508 (153 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .683 — 95th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Diamondbacks are just 11-18 (.379) after a home win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Diamondbacks are just 159-27 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Diamondbacks are 13-6 (.684) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Diamondbacks are 43-10 (.811) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Royals are 21-7 (.750) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Royals are just 20-97 (.171) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 40-56 (.417) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Royals are just 26-55 (.321) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Diamondbacks are batting .274 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .684 (388 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 36% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters have just 144 strikeouts in 829 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (4,727 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.62 (254.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers since the 2022 season is 403.3 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 398.4
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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