- The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Dodgers
- Dodgers vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Dodgers / Phillies TV Channel: SNLA | NSPA | MLBN
The Los Angeles Dodgers (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Dodgers are 55-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-43 ATS.
Dodgers vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Landon Knack 1-2, 2.86 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 10-4, 3.52 ERA
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | +1.5 -155 | O 9.5 -120 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 +100 | -155 |
Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+13.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+12.45 Units / 79% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Walks Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 away games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 away games (+2.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 away games (+2.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.25 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 77 games (+23.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 75 games (+22.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 74 games (+19.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 39 games at home (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 75 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Dodgers are 46-47 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -6.73% ROI).
- 55-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -7.36% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.44% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.7 Units / -8.48% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 49-43 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 4.91% ROI).
- 60-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.9 Units / 8.53% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -9.79% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 0.74% ROI
Phillies vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -200 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Miguel Rojas (LAD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Landon Knack (LAD) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 0% (0/11) against Landon Knack this month (1 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Landon Knack has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 11 innings — Hunter Gaddis has the longest active streak at 22.
Hitters have swung at 39% of Landon Knack’s pitches (33/85) this month (1 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 48% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (6/41) against Landon Knack this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .232 (734 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 145 of Aaron Nola’s 298 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 49%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (105/310) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (439/1,374) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 165 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Dodgers are 51-22 (.699) after a road loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Dodgers are 236-45 (.840) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Dodgers are 265-151 (.637) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Dodgers are 40-34 (.541) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Phillies are 9-20 (.310) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 52-6 (.897) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 24-8 (.750) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .344 (1,016 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .446 against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .338 (9,939 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .338 (7,117 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .776 (3,053 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,802 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 1,140 of 15,318 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 7.20 (70.0 IP) this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
The Dodgers pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 31% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .152 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Brusdar Graterol (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tony Gonsolin (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Diego Cartaya (Los Angeles Dodgers): Back, Day-To-Day
- Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers): Chest, 15-Day IL
- David Peralta (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, Out
- Emmet Sheehan (Los Angeles Dodgers): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Julio Urias (Los Angeles Dodgers): Personal, Out
- Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Frasso (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, Out
- Dustin May (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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