Giants vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 30

Boston Red Sox's Jarren Duran plays against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 5, 2023, in Boston.
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
  • The Giants are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Giants vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Giants / Red Sox TV Channel: NSBA | NESN | MLBN

The San Francisco Giants (-135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+115) on Tuesday, April 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Giants are 14-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 16-13 ATS.

Giants vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Giants starting pitcher: Logan Webb 3-1, 2.33 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Cooper Criswell 1-1, 2.46 ERA

Giants vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Giants-1.5 +125O 8 +100-135
Red Sox +1.5 -155U 8 -120+115

Giants vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Michael Conforto has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 away games (+20.40 Units / 170% ROI)
  • Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Nick Ahmed has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.50 Units / 165% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+14.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+12.75 Units / 142% ROI)
  • Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+9.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 115 games (+27.02 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 85 games (+22.17 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+21.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.68 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Giants are 14-15 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -4.39% ROI).

  • 14-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -13.04% ROI
  • 14-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -4.27% ROI
  • 14-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -5.12% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 16-13 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.42% ROI).

  • 16-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 7.58% ROI
  • 13-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -7.23% ROI
  • 14-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -1.09% ROI

Red Sox vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Matt Chapman (SF) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Jorge Soler (SF) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) 0.5 +675 0.5 -1100
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +700 0.5 -1100
Michael Conforto (SF) 0.5 +700 0.5 -1100

Red Sox vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Thairo Estrada (SF) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Michael Conforto (SF) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Red Sox vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Matt Chapman (SF) 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Michael Conforto (SF) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Jorge Soler (SF) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Patrick Bailey (SF) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Red Sox vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Logan Webb has thrown his changeup 41% of the time (1,546/3,764) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 76% (32/42) against Logan Webb — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (460/738) against Logan Webb since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Logan Webb has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (44/94) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (17/95) against Cooper Criswell this season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

Cooper Criswell has located his fastballs down 49% of the time (28/57) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.

Cooper Criswell has an average fastball velocity of just 89.3 MPH this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (3/31) against Cooper Criswell on changeups this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Giants are 45-7 (.865) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Giants are just 39-55 (.415) on the road since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Giants are 29-14 (.674) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .510.

The Giants are 78-1 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .948.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Red Sox are just 19-81 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Red Sox are just 42-55 (.433) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.

The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.

The Red Sox are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

Giants hitters are slugging just .401 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.

Giants hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.

The Giants are batting just .242 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Giants hitters have 147 extra-base hits out of 473 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Red Sox are batting .285 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .229.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .737 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .549.

Red Sox hitters have 821 strikeouts in 3,410 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.351 (188 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.061.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Giants pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% against Giants pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 4 of 108 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 74 of 1,085 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 117 of 1,698 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.71 (262.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.

Red Sox vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
  • Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
  • Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
  • Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
  • Alex Cobb (San Francisco Giants): Hip, 15-Day IL
  • Cole Waites (San Francisco Giants): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Mike Yastrzemski (San Francisco Giants): Personal, Paternity
  • Tristan Beck (San Francisco Giants): Arm, 60-Day IL
  • Wade Meckler (San Francisco Giants): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Robbie Ray (San Francisco Giants): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Sean Hjelle (San Francisco Giants): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Luke Jackson (San Francisco Giants): Back, 15-Day IL
  • Wilmer Flores (San Francisco Giants): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
  • Thomas Szapucki (San Francisco Giants): Pectoral, 60-Day IL
  • Scott Alexander (San Francisco Giants): Ribs, 15-Day IL
  • Ethan Small (San Francisco Giants): Oblique, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.