- The Guardians are -110 favorites vs the Brewers
- Guardians vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Brewers TV Channel: BSGL | BSWI
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-105) on Friday, August 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Guardians are 72-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 63-58 ATS.
Guardians vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 2-4, 4.35 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 3-8, 5.04 ERA
Guardians vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | O 8 +100 | -115 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -120 | -105 |
Guardians vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 50 games (+59.50 Units / 119% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+14.45 Units / 85% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+17.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 games at home (+17.20 Units / 82% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+16.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+16.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+15.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 121 games (+15.47 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 away games (+11.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+9.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 63 away games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.60 Units / 46% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 117 games (+16.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 121 games (+10.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 47 games at home (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 67 of their last 121 games (+6.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games at home (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 60-61 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 0.5% ROI).
- 72-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.47 Units / 9.98% ROI
- 58-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 56-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -5.88% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 63-58 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 0.59% ROI).
- 69-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.5 Units / 6.87% ROI
- 66-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +14 Units / 10.59% ROI
- 48-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.8 Units / -18.5% ROI
Brewers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Brewers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Brewers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Brewers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
17 of Gavin Williams’ 61 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (94/338) against Gavin Williams since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams’ highest spin rate on curveballs inside since last season is 2506.0 RPM — 10th fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 2747.8
Division opponents are hitting just .206 (42-for-204) against Gavin Williams since last season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 93rd Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 383.3 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 399.0
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .487 (93 Total Bases / 191 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .369 — first Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (482/977) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.4 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.8
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Guardians are 21-22 (.488) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Guardians are 37-155 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 55-2 (.965) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 30-24 (.556) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Brewers are 128-10 (.928) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Brewers are 39-21 (.650) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters have 36 extra-base hits out of 133 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .478 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.87 runs per game (105/121) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.72 (2517.2 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Brewers pitchers have walked 5 of 115 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (13 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 5 of 115 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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