- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Brewers TV Channel: BSGL | BSWI | ESPN+
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-125) on Sunday, August 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Guardians are 72-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 64-59 ATS.
Guardians vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 10-7, 3.72 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 10-4, 3.72 ERA
Guardians vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Guardians vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 49 games (+47.50 Units / 97% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+17.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+16.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 15 games (+16.30 Units / 109% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+15.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+15.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 123 games (+13.37 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 away games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 away games (+11.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.15 Units / 41% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 119 games (+16.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 123 games (+12.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 123 games (+8.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games at home (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 68 of their last 123 games (+4.69 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 61-62 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 0.49% ROI).
- 72-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.37 Units / 8.51% ROI
- 59-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -2.91% ROI
- 57-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -5.82% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 64-59 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 0.58% ROI).
- 71-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.5 Units / 8.06% ROI
- 67-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.95 Units / 10.38% ROI
- 49-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -18.24% ROI
Brewers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Brewers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Brewers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Brewers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
12 of Ben Lively’s 32 breaking pitch strikeouts (38%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 41% of Ben Lively’s pitches (107/262) this month (3 games) — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (15/107) against Ben Lively this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Ben Lively has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of 1.618 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .709 — first Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 18% (37 SO in 207 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 37% (71/192) against Colin Rea this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 16th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .529 (9-for-17) against Colin Rea when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are just 2-44 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Guardians are 21-22 (.488) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Guardians are 24-11 (.686) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Guardians are 201-6 (.971) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are 44-3 (.936) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Brewers are 47-37 (.560) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Brewers are 48-119 (.287) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .239 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .184 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .331 (3,503 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .227 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Guardians have allowed 0.85 runs per game (105/123) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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