- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Guardians / Mariners TV Channel: BSGL | RTNW
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-115) on Tuesday, April 2, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Guardians are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 1-4 ATS.
Guardians vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber 1-0, 0.00 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-1, 6.76 ERA
Guardians vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | O 7 +100 | -105 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -120 | -115 |
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Tanner Bibee has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kole Calhoun has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+9.50 Units / 106% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+9.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Earned Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Logan Gilbert has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.24 Units / 5% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 37% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 9.3% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 53.21% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -62.5% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 1-4 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -53.1% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 6.06% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -22.73% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 15.45% ROI
Mariners vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Naylor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Gimenez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Laureano | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Freeman | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mariners vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Naylor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gimenez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Freeman | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Laureano | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
Mariners vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Naylor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gimenez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Brennan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Freeman | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Laureano | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Mariners vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Castillo | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Bieber | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber located his fastball away 64% of the time (436/686) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 59% of the time (996/1,676) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (184/315) against Shane Bieber on fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Shane Bieber has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 14 innings — Ian Hamilton has the longest active streak at 16.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 68% of the time (984/1,445) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 47% (27/57) against Luis Castillo in late innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 62% of the time (1,996/3,207) in the 2023 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 56% of the time (1,700/3,045) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 34-114 (.228) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians were just 12-24 (.333) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 84-13 (.866) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Mariners were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mariners were 25-18 (.581) after a road win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Mariners are 133-12 (.917) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .870.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,602 strikeouts in 8,870 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,286 strikeouts in 12,394 PA’s (18%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters struck out 422 times in 1,624 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mariners batted just .125 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Guardians pitchers won only 19% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since the 2022 season — tied for fewest in MLB.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers walked 97 of 1,455 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mariners pitchers had an ERA of 3.42 (744.0 IP) at home in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Mariners vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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