- The Padres are -190 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Guardians / Padres TV Channel: GDTV | PDTV | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+154) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Guardians are 2-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 5-1 ATS.
Guardians vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 0-0, 5.41 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 0-0, 6.24 ERA
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +154 |
| Padres | -1.5 +118 | U 7.5 -115 | -190 |
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+11.90 Units / 119% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.20 Units / 122% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+17.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 166 games (+7.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 43 games (+3.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 71 of their last 137 games (+5.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+3.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -3.37% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -10.68% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 17.76% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -23.01% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 5-1 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 77.31% ROI).
- 6-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 81.82% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -18.32% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 9.7% ROI
Padres vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Padres vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Ben Lively’s 41 breaking pitch strikeouts (34%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 19% (3/16) against Ben Lively this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Ben Lively has thrown elevated sliders65% of the time (11/17) this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 10% (2/20) against Ben Lively this season — tied for 3rd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease allowed an OBP of just .269 (757 PAs) last season — tied for seventh best among qualified SPs– 89th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) in the 2023 season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 65 of 592 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (1,802/3,281) since last season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (291/807) against Dylan Cease since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 66-20 (.767) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians were 50-30 (.625) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are 20-14 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Padres are 64-39 (.621) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 293 strikeouts in 1,701 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Padres are batting .308 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .209 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 29% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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