- The Guardians are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Guardians vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Red Sox TV Channel: BSGL | NESN
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Tuesday, April 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Guardians are 11-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 9-8 ATS.
Guardians vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 1-0, 6.08 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock 1-0, 1.26 ERA
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tanner Bibee has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kole Calhoun has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Triston McKenzie has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- David Fry has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+10.25 Units / 85% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.72 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 away games (+5.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 11-5 against the Run Line (+5.7 Units / 26.15% ROI).
- 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 25.51% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 12.96% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -22.86% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 9-8 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 1.07% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 1.98% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -15.38% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 7.28% ROI
Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Triston Casas (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Brayan Rocchio (CLE) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Triston Casas (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
| Garrett Whitlock (BOS) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .520 (13-for-25) against Tanner Bibee’s fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .265 — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Bibee allowed an OPS of just .542 (270 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .746 — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of .920 (23 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 1 of Tanner Bibee’s 35 elevated fastballs out of the zone (3%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock has allowed a slugging percentage of just .033 (1 Total Bases / 30 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .033 (1-for-30) against Garrett Whitlock with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (2/29) against Garrett Whitlock on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has not allowed a hit to any of the last 33 batters he’s faced after reaching two strikes. — Lucas Erceg has the longest active streak at 49.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 8-16 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 23-124 (.155) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are just 18-30 (.375) after a home loss since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were just 17-27 (.386) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox are just 42-140 (.230) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Red Sox are 70-4 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .660 (3,636 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have 61 strikeouts in 206 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.50 runs per game (8/16) in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.49 (90.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 8 of 155 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 113 of 1,590 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 45 of 648 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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