- The Guardians are +100 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Guardians vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Red Sox TV Channel: BSGL | NESN
The Cleveland Guardians (-110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-110) on Thursday, April 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Guardians are 12-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 10-9 ATS.
Guardians vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 0-1, 3.56 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brennan Bernardino 0-1, 1.69 ERA
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | O 9 -115 | -110 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -105 | -110 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tanner Bibee has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kole Calhoun has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Tyler Freeman has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.50 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.95 Units / 44% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 away games (+5.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 12-6 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 19.84% ROI).
- 12-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 23.4% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 11.53% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -20.3% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 10-9 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 2.96% ROI).
- 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.88% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -13.78% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 6.51% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .412 (54-for-131) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .763 (100 Total Bases / 131 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .830 (39 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .874 (146 Total Bases / 167 ABs) when behind in the count since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .598 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 17% (46/268) against Brennan Bernardino in the 2023 season — lowest among in AL; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 33% (26/80) against Brennan Bernardino in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (86/442) against Brennan Bernardino since last season — lowest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 14% (40/293) against Brennan Bernardino in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — lowest among in AL; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 35-118 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Guardians are 24-125 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are just 8-16 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox were 60-4 (.938) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Red Sox were 22-14 (.611) after a home win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Red Sox are just 3-146 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 17-27 (.386) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,695 strikeouts in 9,316 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 791 times in 4,186 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .732 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 9 of 56 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 114 of 1,610 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 9 of 175 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.49 (90.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 51 of 730 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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