The Cleveland Guardians (+115) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Sunday, March 24, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Goodyear, AZ.
This season, the Guardians are 8-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 7-9 ATS.
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +115 |
| Reds | -140 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- David Fry has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Eric Haase has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.24 Units / 5% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+10.93 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Guardians are 9-8 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 2.86% ROI).
- 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / -5.97% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / -15.92% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 4.93% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Reds are 7-9 against the Run Line (+1.14 Units / -22.22% ROI).
- 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / -12.55% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -11.88% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 0.68% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (19/80) against Logan Allen on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 64% (48/75) against Logan Allen’s changeup in the 2023 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 93rd Percentile.
Logan Allen allowed a slugging percentage of just .231 (24 Total Bases / 104 ABs) on changeups in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .380 — 96th Percentile.
Logan Allen allowed a slugging percentage of just .311 (70 Total Bases / 225 ABs) on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 87th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has averaged 98.6 MPH on fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 25% (32/128) against Hunter Greene in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene struck out 34% (83/244) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Greene allowed a BABIP of .373 against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .297 — second Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 34-114 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were just 22-21 (.512) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Guardians were 18-57 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are just 17-24 (.415) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Reds are just 38-18 (.679) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 791 times in 4,186 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 44% in righty-righty matchups in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored first at home since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,682 times in the 2023 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Reds pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 59% of their games since the 2022 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .290 against Reds pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Reds vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gabriel Arias (Cleveland Guardians): Wrist, Out
- Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
Bet now on Guardians vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
