- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: ATV+
The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-150) on Friday, August 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 67-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 55-58 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -120 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 +100 | -150 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 43 games (+42.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+18.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.75 Units / 108% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+24.50 Units / 163% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.05 Units / 70% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 114 games (+12.62 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 59 away games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 59 away games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+14.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 93 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 56-58 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.25% ROI).
- 67-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.62 Units / 8.58% ROI
- 56-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -1.15% ROI
- 52-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.5 Units / -7.61% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 55-58 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -3.6% ROI).
- 63-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.4% ROI
- 59-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.35 Units / 4.35% ROI
- 49-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.15 Units / -13.07% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (542/906) against Alex Cobb since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (122/198) against Alex Cobb when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (336/560) against Alex Cobb in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (274/472) against Alex Cobb since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (36/117) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Bailey Ober in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of just .260 (47 Total Bases / 181 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .357 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .138 (25-for-181) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 19-21 (.475) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are 59-9 (.868) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Guardians are 59-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Guardians are just 2-40 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 51-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Twins are 57-20 (.740) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .621.
The Twins are 24-89 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 48-3 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .278 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Guardians hitters have just 3,089 strikeouts in 16,475 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .777 (3,330 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .786 (1,382 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Twins have scored 1.81 runs per game (497/275) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
The Twins have scored 194 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .227 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Guardians have allowed 0.84 runs per game (96/114) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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