- The Astros are -140 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | ESPN+ | MLBN
The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-140) on Monday, September 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 80-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 79-77 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 11-8, 3.08 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 11-8, 3.58 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -120 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | U 8 +100 | -140 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 31 games (+30.50 Units / 98% ROI)
- Bryce Miller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Walks Over in his last 7 games (+10.55 Units / 151% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+17.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 62 away games (+20.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+8.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 139 games (+18.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 games (+10.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games at home (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 68-88 against the Run Line (-23.8 Units / -12.18% ROI).
- 80-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.05 Units / -7.78% ROI
- 72-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -5.69% ROI
- 75-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -2.34% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 79-77 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 1.96% ROI).
- 85-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -4.18% ROI
- 64-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.15 Units / -18.85% ROI
- 88-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.15 Units / 9.92% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Victor Robles (SEA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -120 |
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has allowed an OBP of just .232 (310 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 96th Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed a batting average of just .200 vs right-handed batters (eighth best)– 94th Percentile and .303 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for sixth worst among non-qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed an OBP of just .241 (270 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed a just .315 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 93rd Percentile and .558 vs left-handed batters last season (sixth worst among non-qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (67/230) against Hunter Brown on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has a strike rate of just 57% when ahead in the count (tied for fifth lowest)– 10th Percentile and 73% when behind in the count this season (seventh highest among qualified SPs)– 88th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.1 MPH (454 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.6 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .128 (45-for-352) against Hunter Brown with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 92nd Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 143-3 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mariners are just 7-13 (.350) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 212-4 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mariners are 53-5 (.914) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are just 0-53 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 129-37 (.777) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mariners are batting just .202 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners are batting just .213 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .217 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 959 strikeouts in 5,296 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,570/18,230 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 73 of 1,387 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.81 (711.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Mariners pitchers have walked 1,225 of 17,582 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (2097.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since last season is 392.3 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.4
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
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