- The Mariners are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Mariners vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Mariners / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Mariners are 56-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 49-56 ATS.
Mariners vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 8-10, 3.40 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton 8-2, 4.49 ERA
Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 10 -105 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 10 -115 | -105 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+18.10 Units / 139% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+14.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+22.10 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+13.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jamie Westbrook has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+13.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.40 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 105 games (+7.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 48-60 against the Run Line (-17 Units / -12.35% ROI).
- 56-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -6% ROI
- 45-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.3 Units / -16.42% ROI
- 59-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.55 Units / 8.08% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 49-56 against the Run Line (-14 Units / -10.08% ROI).
- 56-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.65% ROI
- 52-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.3% ROI
- 48-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.9 Units / -7.7% ROI
Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton (BOS) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (23/36) against Luis Castillo this month (4 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has walked 8 of 198 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 88th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 61% of the time (1,292/2,106) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
63% of Luis Castillo’s strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has walked 25 of 150 batters (17%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 45 of 324 right-handed batters (14%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 25 of 155 batters (16%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 9 of 45 right-handed batters (20%) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 44-19 (.698) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Mariners are 64-13 (.831) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
The Mariners are 57-7 (.891) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Mariners are 160-27 (.856) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are 48-10 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Red Sox are just 45-72 (.385) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Red Sox are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 39-32 (.549) after a road win since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .218 this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mariners hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .204 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Mariners hitters have 831 strikeouts in 2,914 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 353 strikeouts in 1,239 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .262 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .936 (393 PA’s) at home this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.65 (492.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .248 (959 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .277 (3,843 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mariners pitchers have walked 252 of 3,854 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have allowed 8.20 runs per game (82/10) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.53.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 58 of 947 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 163 of 2,382 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 284 of 3,989 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners): Thigh, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Achilles, 60-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners): Ankle, 10-Day IL
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