- The Braves are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | BSUN
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Tuesday, April 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Marlins are 6-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 11-10 ATS.
Marlins vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-2, 3.92 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 1-0, 7.57 ERA
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -115 | +200 |
| Braves | -1.5 -130 | U 8.5 -105 | -250 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 71.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 82 of their last 144 games (+15.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 8-16 against the Run Line (-12.65 Units / -39.91% ROI).
- 6-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -42.99% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 4.61% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -12.52% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 11-10 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 6.74% ROI).
- 15-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 10.57% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 10.07% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -17.77% ROI
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Travis D'Arnaud (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has not allowed a HR in any of his last six starts dating back to April 14th, 2023 — Shawn Armstrong has the longest active streak at 9.
Trevor Rogers has not allowed a home run in any of the last 29.2 innings he’s appeared — Ian Hamilton has the longest active streak at 46.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (14/22) against Trevor Rogers in two-strike counts this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .111 (2-for-18) against Trevor Rogers’ elevated fastball this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 92nd Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 79.3 MPH (20 batted balls) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 88.9 — 100th Percentile.
27 of Max Fried’s 112 breaking pitch strikeouts (24%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (158/269) against Max Fried since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 80.9 MPH on inside pitches since last season (82 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 86.2
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 108-29 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are 17-66 (.205) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Marlins are 14-159 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are 98-17 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Braves are 16-53 (.232) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Braves are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 29-20 (.592) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have chased 47% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .471 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .838 (5,393 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves hitters are slugging .589 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Braves hitters are slugging .713 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 106 of 951 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 441.4
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.44 (120.2 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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