- The Cardinals are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Cardinals TV Channel: BSMW | BSFL | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-150) on Thursday, April 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Marlins are 0-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS.
Marlins vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 0-1, 6.76 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Lance Lynn 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -150 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 away games (+15.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.85 Units / 73% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.05 Units / 121% ROI)
- Miles Mikolas has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Miles Mikolas has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 87% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 games (+5.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 games (+5.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.82 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in their last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 0-7 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -100% ROI
- 6-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.95 Units / 66.44% ROI
- 1-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -72.96% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 5-2 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 31.75% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 6.43% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -14.77% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 10.69% ROI
Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Arenado | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gorman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Winn | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Scott II | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Donovan | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 -3000 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Weathers | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Lynn | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 36% of the time (8/22) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total CH; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has a strike rate of 75% (24/32) in two strike counts this season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has allowed an OBP of .500 (18 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total IP; League Avg: .309 — sixth Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has a strike rate of just 53% (10/19) when he’s behind in the count this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total IP; League Avg: 69% — fifth Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.64 (183.2 IP)in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.84 — fourth Percentile.
17 of Lance Lynn’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.
Lance Lynn allowed an OBP of .328 (807 PA’s) in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 11th Percentile.
Lance Lynn allowed a slugging percentage of .484 (353 Total Bases / 729 ABs) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Marlins are 13-148 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are just 104-24 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Marlins are just 129-65 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Marlins were 42-19 (.689) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Cardinals were just 4-70 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Cardinals were just 71-91 (.438) in 2023 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals were just 15-22 (.405) after a road win in 2023 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .083 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .083 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .170 (148 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Cardinals hitters have 68 strikeouts in 232 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 2 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 43 of 313 batters (14%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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