- The Cardinals are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Cardinals TV Channel: BSMW | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-150) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Marlins are 0-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 6-2 ATS.
Marlins vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-0, 7.21 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz 0-0, 3.38 ERA
Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -115 | +125 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -105 | -150 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.30 Units / 116% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Miles Mikolas has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+5.50 Units / 81% ROI)
- Victor Scott II has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 games (+5.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 games (+5.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.82 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in their last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 0-8 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -100% ROI
- 7-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.95 Units / 68.79% ROI
- 1-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -75.98% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 6-2 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 42.11% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 17.26% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -1.16% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -1.68% ROI
Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Arenado | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gorman | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Chisholm | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Fortes | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Winn | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 -2500 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matz | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Rogers | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 54% (42/78) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 48% (13/27) when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 69% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to April 14th, 2023 — the longest active streak is 8.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (31/78) against Trevor Rogers this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 48% — seventh Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Steven Matz has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last eight games dating back to July 9th, 2023 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Steven Matz has walked 3 of 134 batters (2%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Steven Matz allowed a slugging percentage of .352 (89 Total Bases / 253 ABs) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .279 — seventh Percentile.
68% of Steven Matz’s called strikeouts are inside against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Marlins are 13-149 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins were 54-8 (.871) when they scored 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Marlins are 24-3 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins were 16-55 (.225) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Cardinals were 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals were just 71-91 (.438) in 2023 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 4-80 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 38% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have a swing rate of 68% with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 59%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitter’ K:BB ratio is 5.4 against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.6.
Cardinals hitters have drawn 13 walks in 244 PA’s (5%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cardinals are batting .280 with two outs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .258 (6,636 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 2 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have walked 46 of 353 batters (13%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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