- The Cubs are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Cubs Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Marlins / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSFL | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-175) on Friday, April 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Marlins are 4-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 13-5 ATS.
Marlins vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: A.J. Puk 0-3, 6.10 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | O 9.5 -105 | +145 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +110 | U 9.5 -115 | -175 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+13.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+9.25 Units / 185% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Hendricks has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.95 Units / 85% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 6-13 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -44.25% ROI).
- 4-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -52.26% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 11.3% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -19.29% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 13-5 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 22.1% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.5 Units / 25.23% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -4.25% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -3.31% ROI
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Gordon (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
A.J. Puk has walked 12 of 47 right-handed batters (26%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
A.J. Puk has walked 14 of 58 batters (24%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
A.J. Puk has walked 4 of 87 left-handed batters (5%) since last season — 6th best among in NL; League Avg: 10% — 94th Percentile.
A.J. Puk has struck out 36% (31/87) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd best among in NL; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 19 of 737 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 9 of 329 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (146 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 89.9
Jameson Taillon has a strike rate of 70% (845/1,205) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 107-29 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Marlins are just 118-18 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Marlins are just 129-10 (.928) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Marlins are just 23-78 (.228) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are 36-17 (.679) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Cubs are 52-29 (.642) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Cubs are just 13-26 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are 21-18 (.538) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .250 (332 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Marlins hitters have chased 49% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (3,037 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .914 (125 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Cubs hitters are slugging .554 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .380.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .383 (235 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Cubs are batting .291 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 87 of 768 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 440.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 20 of 162 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 11 double plays in 151 opportunities (7%) this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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