- The Cubs are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Cubs TV Channel: FDFL | MARQ
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-250) on Monday, May 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Marlins are 15-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 21-19 ATS.
Marlins vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 2-3, 7.11 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Colin Rea 2-0, 2.43 ERA
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -110 | +200 |
| Cubs | -1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -110 | -250 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB game with 66.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.30 Units / 60% ROI)
- Dane Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Earned Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+9.50 Units / 119% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+5.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 19-19 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 15-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -5.14% ROI
- 25-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.35 Units / 24.5% ROI
- 13-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.4 Units / -34.82% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 21-19 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 5.81% ROI).
- 23-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 7.89% ROI
- 24-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.9 Units / 20.65% ROI
- 14-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -28.73% ROI
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Cal Quantrill (MIA) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .238 (129-for-543) against Cal Quantrill with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed a slugging percentage of .626 (147 Total Bases / 235 ABs) on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .426 (26-for-61) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OBP of .329 (623 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 game{NumGameSuffix}) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .424 (39-for-92) against Colin Rea on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 12% (2/16) against Colin Rea on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Colin Rea has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 game{NumGameSuffix}) — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 53-12 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are 12-5 (.706) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Cubs are 13-9 (.591) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Cubs are 57-38 (.600) after a loss since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (-66.6% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .478 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Cubs hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .838 (375 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
The Cubs are batting just .201 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.84 (143.1 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 69% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 47% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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