- The Mariners are -235 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Mariners TV Channel: FDFL | RTNW | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+195) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-235) on Saturday, April 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Marlins are 12-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 14-12 ATS.
Marlins vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Connor Gillispie 0-2, 6.76 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-0, 7.05 ERA
Marlins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -115 | O 7.5 -105 | +195 |
| Mariners | -1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -115 | -235 |
Marlins vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 66.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Mervis has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+15.70 Units / 157% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 56% ROI)
- Eric Wagaman has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Eric Wagaman has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 87% ROI)
- Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+13.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ben Williamson has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+8.85 Units / 177% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 113% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 13-12 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -3.18% ROI).
- 12-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 17.34% ROI
- 16-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 20.32% ROI
- 9-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -31.35% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 14-12 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 6.42% ROI).
- 14-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -3.55% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 2.63% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -12.02% ROI
Mariners vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Luke Raley (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Mariners vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Mariners vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Gillispie (MIA) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Gillispie has allowed a slugging percentage of .708 (17 Total Bases / 24 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 63% (12/19) against Connor Gillispie on low non-fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fifth Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 16 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .393 (11-for-28) against Connor Gillispie with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .240 — third Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (181/238) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of .472 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .285 — first Percentile.
Luis Castillo walked 11 of 270 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 89th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 38% (80/209) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 10th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins are just 53-12 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mariners are 2-10 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Mariners are 10-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Mariners are 7-2 (.778) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
The Mariners were 72-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .187 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .206 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mariners are batting just .210 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins have allowed 5.90 runs per game (572/97) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .276 (5,788 PA’s) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
More MLB Reading:
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