- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: SNY
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-160) on Monday, March 11, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Port St. Lucie, FL.
This season, the Marlins are 2-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 8-4 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +130 |
| Mets | -160 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+2.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -18.58% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -47.62% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.87 Units / -61.23% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 55.19% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 8-4 against the Run Line (+4.2 Units / 28.02% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.24 Units / 7.54% ROI
- 1-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.76 Units / -67.33% ROI
- 9-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 58.54% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.8 MPH against his curves since the 2021 season (91 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 87.3
Trevor Rogers’ highest spin rate on curveballs inside since the 2021 season is 2370.0 RPM — 3rd fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2801.0
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (20/91) against Trevor Rogers on curveballs since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 96th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers’ highest spin rate on changeups since the 2021 season is 2230.0 RPM — 8th fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2627.6
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .392 (40-for-102) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed an OBP of .475 (120 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .333 (32-for-96) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — third Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are 25-121 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 151-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 11-109 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins grounded into 158 double plays in the 2023 season — most in MLB.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters chased just 21% pitches when the pitcher was behind in the count in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 20% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The longest HR allowed by the Mets pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 455.0 feet — — tied for 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
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