- The Padres are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Padres TV Channel: FDFL | PDTV
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-170) on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Marlins are 21-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 28-24 ATS.
Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 3-4, 4.18 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 2-1, 2.81 ERA
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -102 | +140 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -118 | -170 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 60.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+14.60 Units / 162% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Max Meyer has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+23.70 Units / 263% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+9.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 72% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 28-24 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 3.13% ROI).
- 21-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -3.4% ROI
- 30-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 9.06% ROI
- 22-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -19.13% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 28-24 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.36% ROI).
- 30-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 3.9% ROI
- 21-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -18.53% ROI
- 29-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.35 Units / 9.19% ROI
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (54/147) against Max Meyer this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown his slider 43% of the time (207/477) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown his slider 62% of the time (157/255) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown off-speed pitches 61% of the time (384/634) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted .327 (36-for-110) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .312 (49-for-157) against Stephen Kolek since last season — tied for highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .287 (83-for-289) against Stephen Kolek since last season — tied for 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — third Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 58-14 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 5-16 (.238) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Padres were 93-69 (.574) in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Padres have scored first in 100% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.25 (1009.1 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.94.
The Marlins have allowed 5.87 runs per game (640/109) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 2.37 (228.0 IP) at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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