- The Padres are -170 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Padres TV Channel: FDFL | PDTV
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-170) on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Marlins are 21-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-24 ATS.
Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 2-7, 8.05 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Kyle Hart 2-2, 6.10 ERA
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -115 | +140 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -105 | -170 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 59.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+13.60 Units / 136% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.25 Units / 89% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 88% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+22.70 Units / 227% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 28-25 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.76% ROI).
- 21-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 31-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 10.58% ROI
- 22-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -20.68% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-24 against the Run Line (+1.55 Units / 2.22% ROI).
- 31-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 5.17% ROI
- 22-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -16.43% ROI
- 29-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 7.17% ROI
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hart (SD) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 16 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OBP of .429 (212 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .319 — 0 Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has an ERA of 8.04 (47.0 IP)this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 3.83 — first Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed three-ball counts to 35% of batters he faced (39/110 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 21% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins are just 58-14 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 85-10 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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