- The Marlins are -105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Marlins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Pirates TV Channel: FDFL | FS1 | SNPT
The Miami Marlins (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Monday, June 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 24-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 29-36 ATS.
Marlins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 1-1, 5.27 ERA
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +154 | O 8 -102 | -110 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -118 | -110 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+15.30 Units / 255% ROI)
- Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+14.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 33-30 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.45% ROI).
- 24-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.3 Units / -12.25% ROI
- 34-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 1.7% ROI
- 29-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -12.02% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 29-36 against the Run Line (-14.65 Units / -17.09% ROI).
- 26-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -13.61% ROI
- 25-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.6 Units / -22.88% ROI
- 38-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.65 Units / 14.66% ROI
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Eury Perez (MIA) | 5.5 +145 | 5.5 -190 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 14% (7/52) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 49% (161/326) against Eury Perez on breaking pitches in 2023 — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 34% (257/764) against Eury Perez in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Burrows has limited playing time.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are just 58-14 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins are just 13-4 (.765) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates are just 14-44 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates are just 8-49 (.140) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 41% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 36% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have put just 24% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (247.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 51% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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