- The Tigers are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Tigers TV Channel: BSDT | BSFL | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-175) on Wednesday, May 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Marlins are 12-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 19-23 ATS.
Marlins vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-6, 6.51 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 1-1, 3.56 ERA
Marlins vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | +145 |
| Tigers | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -115 | -175 |
Marlins vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+23.00 Units / 575% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+16.40 Units / 86% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.55 Units / 67% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.60 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 30% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 25 games (+4.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 28% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 14-30 against the Run Line (-22.46 Units / -39.71% ROI).
- 12-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.9 Units / -40.57% ROI
- 26-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.5 Units / 13.49% ROI
- 18-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -21.6% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 19-23 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -9.05% ROI).
- 21-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -3.41% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.71% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -9.91% ROI
Tigers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Tigers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Tigers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Tigers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -110 |
| Casey Mize (DET) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 27% of the time (200/735) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .618 (63 Total Bases / 102 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .380 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OPS of .772 (87 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .504 — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .556 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .328 — 0 Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (11/78) against Casey Mize on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 62 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .338 (27-for-80) against Casey Mize this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .243 — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 18 of Casey Mize’s 98 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 18%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Marlins are just 110-29 (.791) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are just 30-59 (.337) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Marlins are just 41-54 (.432) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Marlins are 15-173 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Tigers are just 82-102 (.446) at home since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Tigers are 41-14 (.745) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Tigers are just 25-138 (.153) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Tigers are just 22-90 (.196) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .530 (509 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .680.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .574 (566 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .402 (805 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .201 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .648 (10,246 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Tigers are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .356 against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (10,246 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.47 (214.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Marlins have allowed 6.30 runs per game (145/23) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.39.
Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 111 of 1,558 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 281 of 3,251 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 3.83 (877.0 IP) on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Tigers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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