- The Marlins are -135 favorites vs the White Sox
- Marlins vs White Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / White Sox TV Channel: FDFL | CHSN
The Miami Marlins (-135) visit Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+115) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Marlins are 15-23 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 21-19 ATS.
Marlins vs White Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 2-4, 8.43 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Sean Burke 2-4, 4.39 ERA
Marlins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -105 | -135 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -115 | +115 |
Marlins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+14.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+12.40 Units / 83% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+9.50 Units / 106% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Andrew Vaughn has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.70 Units / 242% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+8.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andrew Vaughn has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.85 Units / 83% ROI)
- Lenyn Sosa has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.60 Units / 15% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games at home (+7.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 62% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 19-19 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 15-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -5.14% ROI
- 25-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.35 Units / 24.5% ROI
- 13-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.4 Units / -34.82% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the White Sox are 21-19 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -0.43% ROI).
- 11-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -28.55% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -4.75% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -4.23% ROI
White Sox vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
White Sox vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Andrew Vaughn (CWS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Miguel Vargas (CWS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
White Sox vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Andrew Vaughn (CWS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edgar Quero (CWS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
White Sox vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke (CWS) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 29% (21/73) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 71% (560/787) in two strike counts in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of 56% (733/1,301) against Sandy Alcantara in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (932/1,301) against right-handed batters in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Burke has walked 18% of left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Sean Burke has a strike rate of just 56% (176/315) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Sean Burke has a first-pitch in-zone of 31% (53/173) this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Sean Burke has a in-zone of 33% (112/335) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The White Sox were just 26-95 (.215) after a loss in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The White Sox are just 21-80 (.208) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The White Sox were just 8-36 (.182) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
The White Sox are just 6-53 (.102) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .286 (1,976 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins hitters have put 43% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .284 (10,034 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
White Sox hitters had an OBP of just .278 (5,869 PA’s) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .288 (6,565 PA’s) at home since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The White Sox are batting just .292 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.98 (135.1 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The Marlins have allowed 6.94 runs per game (111/16) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Marlins pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 71% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox pitchers walked 643 of 6,241 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The White Sox allowed 1.70 runs per game (275/162) in late innings in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
White Sox pitchers walked 654 of 6,301 batters (10%) in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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