- The Yankees are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Yankees TV Channel: BSFL | YES | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-150) on Monday, April 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in New York City, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 1-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 6-4 ATS.
Marlins vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 0-1, 4.50 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes 0-1, 6.31 ERA
Marlins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 8 +100 | +125 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -120 | -150 |
Marlins vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.65 Units / 96% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Clarke Schmidt has hit the Earned Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 51% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+3.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 1-9 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -80.22% ROI).
- 1-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -81.59% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.95 Units / 55.09% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -61.16% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 6-4 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 19.54% ROI).
- 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.85 Units / 49.37% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -34.5% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 25.82% ROI
Yankees vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Soto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Volpe | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Chisholm | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Fortes | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Trevino | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -1600 |
Yankees vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luzardo | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Cortes | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
40% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts were elevated in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .087 (2-for-23) against Jesus Luzardo with two-strikes this season — tied for 7th best among in NL; League Avg: .171 — 89th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (28/82) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 13th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strike rate of just 51% (39/77) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — fourth Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (14/77) against Nestor Cortes this season — 7th lowest among in AL; League Avg: 27% — 12th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has a strikeout rate of just 15% (7 SO in 46 PAs) this season — 8th lowest among in AL; League Avg: 24% — 14th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (47/177) against Nestor Cortes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .310 (13-for-42) against Nestor Cortes this season — 9th highest among in AL; League Avg: .230 — 16th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Marlins are 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Marlins were 7-65 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are 13-150 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are just 105-26 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Yankees are 113-28 (.801) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Yankees are 21-18 (.538) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Yankees are 75-26 (.743) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Yankees are 58-34 (.630) after a home win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 44% of pitches out of the zone in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .227 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Yankees are batting just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 52 of 422 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Yankees pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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