- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mets vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Diamondbacks TV Channel: SNY | DBTV
The New York Mets (-105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) on Thursday, August 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Mets are 69-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 69-64 ATS.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 8-1, 2.86 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 9-6, 4.29 ERA
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 away games (+37.00 Units / 185% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+22.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+15.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Peterson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+36.40 Units / 260% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+16.10 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+15.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 41 games (+15.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 85 games (+10.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 74 games (+10.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 71 of their last 124 games (+9.45 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+9.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 77 games (+25.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 76 games (+24.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 36 games at home (+2.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 64-69 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 69-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -1.61% ROI
- 67-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.48% ROI
- 60-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -8.97% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 69-64 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.59% ROI).
- 76-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.15 Units / 8.97% ROI
- 74-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +14.1 Units / 9.57% ROI
- 54-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -27.1 Units / -18.63% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake McCarthy (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 56% (62/111) against David Peterson on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 61% (2,378/3,919) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (732/1,284) since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 33 of 277 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .544 (249 Total Bases / 458 ABs) at home since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .403 — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .529 (262 Total Bases / 495 ABs) at home since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: .397 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (155/881) against Ryne Nelson since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .321 (147-for-458) against Ryne Nelson at home since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .244 — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are just 54-6 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Mets are just 114-18 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Mets are just 51-12 (.810) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are 19-14 (.576) after a road loss this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are 19-13 (.594) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .360.
The Diamondbacks are 20-14 (.588) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Diamondbacks are 5-48 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Diamondbacks are 15-6 (.714) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have 127 extra-base hits out of 317 total hits (40%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .347 (2,061 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Mets hitters are slugging .441 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .741 (8,832 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .527 against RHP this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .372 (684 PA’s) against RHP this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Diamondbacks are batting .277 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .900 (684 PA’s) against RHP this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 503 of 5,065 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,094 of 11,149 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 245 of 2,600 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 28% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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