- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mets vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNY | MLBN
The New York Mets (-105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ, AZ.
This season, the Mets are 23-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 17-18 ATS.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 2-1, 3.06 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 2-4, 4.89 ERA
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +154 | O 9 -105 | -105 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -115 | -115 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 67% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 56% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+15.00 Units / 214% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+8.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 11 games (+4.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+2.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 29% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 20-16 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 11.96% ROI).
- 23-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 9.35% ROI
- 14-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -15.9% ROI
- 21-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 9.42% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 17-18 against the Run Line (-2.15 Units / -4.88% ROI).
- 18-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -3.54% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -6.8% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Luisangel Acuna (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.2 MPH on the 208 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
David Peterson allowed a BABIP of .377 in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (47/85) against David Peterson on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 57% (84/148) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has walked 17% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 56% (65/117) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 57% (108/189) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 58% (204/350) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-70 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Mets are 9-3 (.750) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Mets are 34-26 (.567) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Diamondbacks (first best runs scored) today.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are 148-36 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-4 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are just 14-3 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .918.
The Diamondbacks are 12-68 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have struck out in just 11% of it’s PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters slugged .440 against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 16% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have 98 extra-base hits out of 209 total hits (47%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.91 runs per game (377/197) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .347 (3,731 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Diamondbacks pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH in the 2024 season (4,288 balls in play) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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