- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: SNY | BSFL
The New York Mets (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 20-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 15-30 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-1, 2.84 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 0-3, 6.10 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -115 | -120 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -105 | +100 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 42 games (+13.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+8.10 Units / 203% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+22.00 Units / 440% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+13.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 away games (+3.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 71% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 20-23 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -6.81% ROI).
- 20-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -6.75% ROI
- 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -7.04% ROI
- 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -1.68% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 15-30 against the Run Line (-21.46 Units / -36.99% ROI).
- 13-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -36.96% ROI
- 26-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 10.95% ROI
- 19-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.5 Units / -19.11% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (MIA) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Christian Scott (NYM) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Christian Scott slider was May 4th. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his slider. — JoJo Romero has the longest active streak at 29.
The last hit on a Christian Scott breaking pitch was May 4th. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Clay Holmes has the longest active streak at 41.
Christian Scott has a strikeout rate of 33% (6 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 5th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.
Christian Scott has allowed a slugging percentage of .556 (10 Total Bases / 18 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 10th highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .369 — 19th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .190 (58-for-305) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 42% (16 SO in 38 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of .815 (333 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .692 — second Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .483 (144 Total Bases / 298 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — fifth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 154-17 (.901) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Mets are just 4-88 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 9-45 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mets are 96-24 (.800) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 31-59 (.344) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Marlins are just 111-29 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are just 38-34 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Marlins are 9-95 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .205 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .606 (885 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Mets have won just 40% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .322 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .571 (569 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Marlins have won just 27% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .203 (825 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 196 of 1,673 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 49 of 390 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 60 of 479 batters (12%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9 of 65 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.47 (214.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (399.0 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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