Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 18

Miami Marlins' Josh Bell takes batting practice during a spring training baseball workout Friday, Feb. 16, 2024, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
  • The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
  • Mets / Marlins TV Channel: WPIX | BSFL

The New York Mets (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.

This season, the Mets are 20-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 16-30 ATS.

Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 2-2, 2.98 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett 0-0, 8.45 ERA

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +135O 7.5 -115-135
Marlins +1.5 -160U 7.5 -105+115

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 43 games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+8.10 Units / 203% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+21.00 Units / 350% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 away games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.60 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.85 Units / 76% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 20-24 against the Run Line (-4.75 Units / -8.47% ROI).

  • 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -9.18% ROI
  • 21-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -4.73% ROI
  • 21-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -4.03% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 16-30 against the Run Line (-20.46 Units / -34.32% ROI).

  • 14-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.45 Units / -34.18% ROI
  • 27-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.4 Units / 12.7% ROI
  • 19-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -20.87% ROI

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jazz Chisholm (MIA) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
J.D Martinez (NYM) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 +500 0.5 -750

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
J.D Martinez (NYM) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
J.D Martinez (NYM) 0.5 +135 0.5 -185
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jake Burger (MIA) 0.5 +190 0.5 -250

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Braxton Garrett (MIA) 4.5 -130 4.5 +100
Luis Severino (NYM) 5.5 +110 5.5 -145

Luis Severino has an ERA of 7.24 (64.2 IP) on the road since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 4.36 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (20/126) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Luis Severino has walked 13 of 103 right-handed batters (13%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (39/67) against Luis Severino this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (574/1,198) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (365/759) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (232/491) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (898/1,917) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are just 4-89 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.

The Mets are 168-4 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.

The Mets are 96-24 (.800) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.

The Mets are 154-17 (.901) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 38-34 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.

The Marlins are just 112-29 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.

The Marlins are just 32-59 (.352) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Marlins are just 14-47 (.230) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

The Mets are batting just .205 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .606 (885 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Mets hitters are slugging just .322 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Mets are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .411 (847 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .503.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .205 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (3,284 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Mets pitchers have walked 200 of 1,714 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Mets pitchers have walked 50 of 398 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have walked 15 of 109 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Marlins pitchers have walked 180 of 1,804 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 4.94 (408.0 IP) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.

Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
  • Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
  • Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
  • David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
  • Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL

Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.

First Bet Offer BetMGM State Promo Pages $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.