- The Pirates are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Pirates TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The New York Mets (+110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Mets are 42-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 45-41 ATS.
Mets vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 5-2, 3.41 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 4-0, 2.07 ERA
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 +100 | +110 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -120 | -130 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 76 games (+17.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 away games (+11.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 39 away games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 75 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 42 games (+10.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 41-44 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -4.58% ROI).
- 42-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -3.55% ROI
- 44-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 4.61% ROI
- 36-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -13% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 45-41 against the Run Line (+0.46 Units / 0.41% ROI).
- 41-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.05 Units / -6.03% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -8.3% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.93 Units / 0.99% ROI
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.5 -150 | 7.5 +115 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (22/146) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (50/288) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Severino has walked 14 of 144 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (153/778) against Luis Severino this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 10th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has thrown off-speed pitches 71% of the time (25/35) when he’s behind in the count over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (13/20) against Paul Skenes — tied for 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 34% (70 SO in 205 PAs) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has an average fastball velocity of 99.2 MPH this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 28-11 (.718) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 32-6 (.842) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Mets are 8-25 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Mets are just 32-35 (.478) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 43-57 (.430) after a home win since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 3-25 (.107) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are just 132-30 (.815) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Pirates are just 16-26 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging 1.140 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .603.
Mets hitters are slugging .514 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .777 (957 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 56 strikeouts in 141 PA’s (40%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Pirates hitters have 414 strikeouts in 1,218 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 76 of 767 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 329 of 3,277 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 216 of 2,179 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,441 of 15,783 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
Bet now on Mets vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
