- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mets vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Pirates TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The New York Mets (-135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Mets are 42-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 46-41 ATS.
Mets vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 3-0, 3.51 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 4-6, 3.89 ERA
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 9.5 -120 | -135 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | U 9.5 +100 | +115 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 77 games (+16.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+15.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 games (+11.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 41-45 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -6.03% ROI).
- 42-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -4.54% ROI
- 45-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 5.62% ROI
- 36-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -13.95% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 46-41 against the Run Line (+1.91 Units / 1.68% ROI).
- 42-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -4.96% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -7.15% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.07 Units / -0.07% ROI
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Edward Olivares (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Edward Olivares (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has allowed an OBP of .326 (334 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 61% (1,999/3,297) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an OPS of .883 (266 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .705 — second Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (346/632) of right-handed hitters since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 17% (59 SO in 353 PAs) this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — ninth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 14% (20 SO in 144 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown fastballs 66% of the time (830/1,259) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 36% (76/211) against Bailey Falter this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 12th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 28-11 (.718) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Mets are just 32-6 (.842) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 7-28 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Mets are 13-165 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 16-26 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 3-25 (.107) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Pirates are just 48-86 (.358) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Pirates are 57-13 (.814) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging 1.023 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Mets hitters are slugging .446 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .325 (10,809 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,872 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Pirates hitters have 31 extra-base hits out of 121 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters have 56 strikeouts in 143 PA’s (39%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 76 of 775 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 216 of 2,187 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 925 of 9,404 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,444 of 15,817 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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