- The Reds are -120 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Reds TV Channel: SNY | BSOH
The New York Mets (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Mets are 2-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 3-4 ATS.
Mets vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 0-1, 5.41 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 0-0, 5.41 ERA
Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 9.5 -120 | +100 |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 +100 | -120 |
Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 87% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Graham Ashcraft has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 156 games (+19.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games at home (+5.48 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 1-6 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -64.94% ROI).
- 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -50.86% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -45.1% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 36.13% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -15.12% ROI).
- 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 8.65% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 35.26% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -45.39% ROI
Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nimmo | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alvarez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| McNeil | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Narvaez | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -1400 |
Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Severino | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Martinez | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has an ERA of 8.14 (48.2 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 4.43 — first Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 100% (14/14) of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has a strike rate of 88% (21/24) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .341 (73-for-214) against Luis Severino on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (32/43) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider in the 2023 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 54% (169/311) against Nick Martinez in the 2023 season — 8th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Nick Martinez’s breaking pitches (216/616) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Nick Martinez walked 24 of 138 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 7th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — seventh Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 6-40 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are 153-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 40-47 (.460) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Reds are just 50-38 (.568) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 39-18 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Reds are just 18-24 (.429) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .232 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .563 (51 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.067.
The Mets are batting just .167 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets hitters are slugging just .233 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .379.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 22 extra-base hits out of 43 total hits (51%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Reds hitters have 24 strikeouts in 85 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds hitters have put just 29% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds hitters have put 51% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 147 of 1,478 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 619 of 6,365 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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