- The Diamondbacks are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Diamondbacks TV Channel: MAS2 | DBTV
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-165) on Monday, July 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Nationals are 49-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 54-52 ATS.
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-6, 4.38 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery 7-5, 6.18 ERA
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | O 9 -115 | +140 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +115 | U 9 -105 | -165 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+15.55 Units / 64% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+12.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.60 Units / 160% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 games (+30.90 Units / 182% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+15.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+13.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+10.35 Units / 39% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 98 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 98 games (+10.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 53 away games (+2.95 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+15.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 58 games (+12.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 60-46 against the Run Line (+7.58 Units / 5.46% ROI).
- 49-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 6.88% ROI
- 50-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -5.14% ROI
- 51-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.72 Units / -4.02% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 54-52 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -3.07% ROI).
- 55-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 56-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 47-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -12.2% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Jordan Montgomery (ARI) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -110 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 69% (410/595) when ahead in the count this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed a slugging percentage of .556 (20 Total Bases / 36 ABs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .278 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 67% of Mitchell Parker’s pitches (295/443) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 99th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (21/129) against Mitchell Parker when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .355 (54-for-152) against Jordan Montgomery at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .256 (169-for-660) against Jordan Montgomery when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 16th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has had third base stolen on him 6 times this season — tied for most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has an ERA of 7.57 (35.2 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 3.76 — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 53-210 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 31-50 (.383) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 66-108 (.379) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are just 162-28 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Diamondbacks are just 179-18 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 152-33 (.822) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Diamondbacks are 13-6 (.684) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .541.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .958 (1,844 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
The Nationals have scored first in just 39% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Nationals hitters have just 2,211 strikeouts in 11,050 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 93 extra-base hits out of 303 total hits (just 31%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .698 (471 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .397 with two-strikes this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .301 (471 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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