- The Diamondbacks are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Nationals / Diamondbacks TV Channel: MAS2 | DBTV | ESPN+ | MLBN
The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-185) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Nationals are 49-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 54-53 ATS.
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 2-10, 5.30 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 7-6, 4.84 ERA
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -115 | +150 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +110 | U 9 -105 | -185 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+16.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+10.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.70 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 18 games (+29.90 Units / 166% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+15.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+11.25 Units / 87% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 76% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 away games (+14.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 99 games (+12.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 99 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 54 away games (+4.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 61-46 against the Run Line (+8.58 Units / 6.11% ROI).
- 49-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 5.93% ROI
- 51-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -4.15% ROI
- 51-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.02 Units / -5.07% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 54-53 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -3.75% ROI).
- 56-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 0.75% ROI
- 57-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.85 Units / 4.09% ROI
- 47-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.4 Units / -13.17% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Harold Ramirez (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .312 (215-for-689) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .306 (133-for-434) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .489 (337 Total Bases / 689 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .849 (750 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .666 — fourth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .345 (142-for-412) against Ryne Nelson at home since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 7.37 (97.2 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 3.98 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (129/772) against Ryne Nelson since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .583 (240 Total Bases / 412 ABs) at home since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 31-50 (.383) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 66-108 (.379) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Nationals are just 52-77 (.403) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are just 179-18 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 111-28 (.799) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Diamondbacks are just 162-28 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Diamondbacks are just 116-12 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 573 strikeouts in 3,034 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .695 (4,981 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .656 (1,166 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Nationals have an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .412 with two-strikes this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .283.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .722 (491 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Diamondbacks are batting .274 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .345 (3,794 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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